Probability & Statistics · Mathematics & Statistics
Statistics Theory
The newest papers in Statistics Theory that ReadSearch has read, newest first. Each links to its own page, with its authors, date, where it was published and the original.
321 papers, from 31 August 2026 to 4 November 2026: 287 arXiv preprints and 34 OpenAlex records.
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Newest papers, page 9
Anytime-valid simulation-based hypothesis testing
For a given data distribution $(X_t)_{t \in \mathbb{N}} \sim Q$ i.i.d., we investigate the hypothesis testing problem: $H_0: Q = P_0$ vs. $H_1: Q = P_1$, for two different model probability…Where Do Two Populations of Persistence Diagrams Differ? Calibrated Local Inference at a Fixed Budget
Many two-sample tests for populations of persistence diagrams assess global differences without identifying the regions of the birth-death plane that contribute to them.Spectral Recovery of Point Clouds from Noisy Geometric Graphs
We study the problem of recovering low-dimensional latent geometry from a random geometric graph generated by noisy, high-dimensional data.Slow Beats Fast at the Kesten-Stigum Threshold: Minimax, Fisher-Information and Belief-Propagation Characterizations of the Information-Computation Gap in Sparse Stochastic Block Models
We study community recovery in the sparse symmetric stochastic block model with $q$ communities, average degree $d$ and signal strength $λ$ through statistical decision theory and Fisher…Graph-monotone entrywise guarantees for MLE and Rank Centrality on general comparison graphs
Pairwise comparisons are widely used to infer latent scores and identify top-ranked items.On the Computational Complexity of Hidden Markov Model Identification
Identification is the task of recovering the parameters of an unknown ground-truth model from sampled data.Sketched Calibration for Conformal Prediction under Covariate Shift
Weighted conformal prediction corrects for covariate shift by reweighting calibration scores with the likelihood ratio between target and source covariates.The optimal information complexity of VC learning
Steinke and Zakynthinou(2020) introduces the Conditional Mutual Information (CMI) framework of analyzing the information complexity of learning algorithms based on algorithm-dependent…Optimal bound for the polynomial Littlewood-Offord problem
We present an exposition of an argument, discovered by GPT-6 Pro, that gives an optimal bound for the polynomial Littlewood-Offord problem.Finite-Sample Distribution Theory and Efficient Large-Scale Inference for Online Quantile Regression
This paper studies online quantile regression for large-scale and streaming data using Stochastic SubGradient Descent (SSGD) with constant learning rates.Bradley-Terry model under general comparison graphs
The Bradley-Terry model is a parametric model for ranking from pairwise comparisons.Sharp dimensional analysis of midpoint methods for Langevin sampling
We study deterministic and randomized midpoint discretizations of Langevin dynamics for a target $π\propto e^{-V}$, where $0 \prec αI\preceq\nabla^2V\preceqβI$ and $κ=β/α$.Data Fusion for Errors-in-Variables
We study errors-in-variables problems in which a target study contains only a single error-prone surrogate of an unobserved exposure, while an external source study provides repeated surrogate…Sample-Optimal Estimation of the Fréchet Inception Distance
The Fréchet Inception Distance (FID) is widely used to evaluate generative models, but its empirical plug-in estimator suffers from finite-sample bias [BSAG18, CF20].Poisson empirical Bayes estimation of sums of random variables via minimum-distance methods
The estimation of sums of functions of observable and unobservable variables is a long-standing problem in statistics, with applications in many domains.Assumption-lean logistic regression with missing covariates
Missing covariates are frequently encountered in supervised learning problems, and classical methods for estimation using such data use carefully chosen imputation schemes for missing data, or…Convex Order Beyond Dimension One: Projection Tests, Counterexamples and Gaussian Mixtures
In actuarial science and quantitative finance, convex order provides a natural way to compare risks with the same mean.When Is a Graph a Covariance? Bayesian Residual Propagation under Covariance Uncertainty
Observing a prediction error at one node can help correct predictions elsewhere, but the benefit depends on the residual dependence between nodes.A Statistical Inference Framework for PMI Estimation and SGNS Word Embeddings
Pointwise Mutual Information (PMI) is a core measure of testing word association, and Skip-gram with Negative Sampling (SGNS) is essentially a method that implicitly factorizes a shifted PMI matrix.Diffusion Transformers are Provably Optimal In-context Generators
Generative foundation models are attracting interest for their ability to produce desired outputs from demonstrations given at inference time, without updating parameters.