Probability & Statistics · Mathematics & Statistics
Methodology
The newest papers in Methodology that ReadSearch has read, newest first. Each links to its own page, with its authors, date, where it was published and the original.
353 papers, from 4 September 2026 to 5 November 2026: 353 arXiv preprints.
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Newest papers, page 13
Conformal Coverage of Time Series: Validity and Inference
Conformal prediction provides marginal coverage guarantees, yet practitioners may wonder if the observed coverage is truly abnormal or consistent with sampling variation.REALM: Regime-Switching, Explainable, and Activation-Induced Linear Models
Deep ReLU networks are piecewise-affine mappings that partition the input space into cells, each characterized by a distinct activation pattern.Rank Confidence Sequences:Anytime-valid Leaderboards
Leaderboards rank models by their average scores on benchmark items, and they are consulted repeatedly while the evaluation is still running.Identification of Nonlinear and Dependent Latent Factor Structure through Clique Search
Learning the structure of latent factor models involves two central challenges: (1) estimating the number of latent factors and (2) learning the support of the mapping from latent variables to…Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Entity Ranking under Iterative Synthetic Data Augmentation
We study entity ranking and inference under the Bradley--Terry--Luce (BTL) model using pairwise comparisons collected over sparse comparison graphs.MARCEDES: Score-based causal discovery under non-Gaussianity with continuous optimization
We consider the problem of learning the underlying causal directed acyclic graph (DAG) structure corresponding to a structural equation model (SEM) with non-Gaussian errors.Design-Ignoring versus Design-Respecting World Models for Epidemiology
World models for epidemiology learn from records shaped by study designs, including assignment, sampling, measurement, and related processes.Structured Bayesian Modeling of Dynamic Receptive1 Fields in Salamander Retinal Ganglion Cells
Neurons in the visual system are selective for specific spatial and temporal stimulus features, described by their \emph{receptive field}.Conformal Prediction under Exponential-Tilt Joint Shift
Conformal prediction can lose coverage when the data distribution changes after deployment.Ensembles of Exactly Solved Subsamples for Clusterwise Regression: Trimming Without a Trimming Level
Clusterwise least squares partitions regression data into K groups with separate linear fits.Accounting for Bias Enables Sustainable LLM Evaluation
LLM-as-a-judge has become the de facto standard for scalable, subjective evaluation, yet current leaderboards compensate for systematic measurement bias by running ever more comparisons, an approach…DIAL: Position-Debiased LLM Judges with Adaptive Human Preference Calibration
Large language models (LLMs) as a judge enable scalable evaluation, but their judgments can be sensitive to response order and, even after removing such position effects, can still diverge…Statistical Foundations for a Google Play User-Review Sentiment Index: Signal Fusion, Shrinkage, Distributional Validation, and Dynamic Smoothing
We develop a statistically explicit sentiment index for Google Play user reviews and establish the mathematical results supporting its construction.Two Conformal Constructions for Adaptive Within-Document AI-Text Screening
We study false-alert control when screening for text generated by artificial intelligence (AI).Statistical attribute alignment for black-box generative AI via output post-processing
Generative AI systems are increasingly used, but aligning their outputs with user requirements poses a continuing challenge.Human-AI-Powered Hypothesis Testing: Cost-Aware Selective AI Scoring and Sequential Human Escalation
Large language models are increasingly used as inexpensive judges to evaluate outputs, label data, and assess whether a system meets a desired quality standard.Sufficiently Reduced Distributional Regression
We propose Sufficiently Reduced Distributional Regression (SRDR), a generative method that combines conditional distribution estimation with nonlinear sufficient dimension reduction (SDR).Shrinking-Tube Concentration for Adaptive Markovian Stochastic Approximation
Adaptive algorithms increasingly make decisions while reshaping the dynamics that generate their future data.An End-to-End Pipeline for Causal ML with Continuous Treatments: An Application to Financial Decision Making
This paper presents an end-to-end causal machine learning (ML) pipeline designed for real-world applications with continuous treatments.Benchy: towards a universal language for task-oriented AI benchmarks
Benchy is a semantic language and execution engine for benchmarking AI programs.