Probability & Statistics · Mathematics & Statistics
Probability
The newest papers in Probability that ReadSearch has read, newest first. Each links to its own page, with its authors, date, where it was published and the original.
298 papers, from 31 August 2026 to 5 November 2026: 270 arXiv preprints and 28 OpenAlex records.
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Newest papers, page 15
Efficient model exploration with the integrated nested Laplace approximation
Model and variable selection are important topics in Bayesian inference.Two-resolution state modelling of intermittent online gambling activity during Sweden's temporary deposit-cap period
Intermittent online gambling records create two distinct representation problems: calendar-time analyses must retain represented days with no recorded play, whereas analyses of active behaviour must…Beyond Worst-Case Coreset Bounds for $k$-Clustering via Determinantal Sampling
Massive datasets in modern machine learning have made data reduction a central challenge, particularly for clustering tasks where memory and computational constraints demand compact yet faithful…A Gamma envelope and sharp moment inequalities for Gaussian quadratic forms
We study extremal absolute central moments of Gaussian quadratic forms under a fixed Frobenius norm.The oriented Kesten--McKay law for random regular digraphs
We consider the adjacency matrix of a random directed $d$-regular graph on $N$ vertices.A $p$-summability approach to the weak maximizing property
Motivated by the weak maximizing property ($\mathrm{WMP}$), we investigate $p$-summability conditions on maximizing sequences of bounded linear operators.Data-Adaptive Rerandomization for 2K Factorial Designs
Factorial designs allow simultaneous estimation of multiple main effects and interactions, but covariate imbalance can substantially reduce estimation precision.The higher-dimensional Shepp problem: an exact criterion for random ball coverings of tori
We solve the Euclidean-ball case of the higher-dimensional Shepp covering problem.Non-attacking rook placements on crossword grids
We introduce the notion of a non-attacking rook placement on a crossword grid.Extending Subsampling to Sequential Stopping
Fixed-width sequential stopping rules terminate a stochastic simulation once an estimated confidence interval reaches a prescribed width.Nonparametric inference for density-dependent McKean--Vlasov diffusions
The present research is devoted to the nonparametric estimation of a density-dependent drift coefficient in a multivariate McKean--Vlasov diffusion from independent observations at a common time, as…Points of maximal traffic on a grid with obstruction
For $n\in\mathbb{N}$, we consider the set of lattice paths from $(0,0)$ to $(n,n)$ using only unit north and east steps.Exact Risk-Complexity Laws for Projective Boundaries in Scenario Optimization and Distribution-Free Certification
Scenario optimization, conformal prediction, and related distribution-free certification methods use finite samples to construct decisions or prediction sets with violation-risk guarantees for fresh…Two Kinds of Nothing: What Insignificant Results in Finance Actually Show
Claims of the form "we find no evidence that X affects Y" appear throughout the applied finance literature, yet whether such a claim contains evidence of absence or absence of evidence depends…On (fake) Stationarity in Stochastic Volterra Equations with Affine Drift and Regular Kernels
We investigate the fake stationarity properties of solutions to forward Stochastic Volterra Integral Equations (SVIEs) with affine drift and long-memory (regular) kernels, both on finite horizons…Moments of Random Coefficients in Short Panels
We study identification and estimation of moments of random coefficients in short linear panels, allowing the number of heterogeneous coefficients to exceed the number of equations observed for each…Genetic association testing with multivariate survival phenotypes under interval censoring
Set-based genetic association tests provide a powerful framework for detecting genetic effects on complex traits by jointly analyzing multiple genetic variants.Szegő-type determinant asymptotics for generalized Hilbert matrices with edge eigenvalues
We compute the large-$N$ asymptotics of the determinant of the identity plus or minus a generalized Hilbert matrix.